Covid-19 Latest
The working class faces a uniquely challenging situation in 2020. First the country is being devastated by the Covid-19 virus. At the time of writing we cannot know how widespread the deaths and damage will penetrate and do damage. Secondly, and interconnected with the spread of the virus, we are confronted with a massive recession. The Bank of England finds it ‘plausible’ that 2020 could see the greatest economic collapse – a 14% fall - since before the South Sea Bubble burst three hundred years ago.
The pandemic and the economic crisis are both global in scope. The World Trade Organization predicts that world trade will fall by a third this year. Delicate supply chains built up over decades will be snapped. Likewise the virus is sweeping across the earth in waves, striking one country after another at different times. Optimists believe that the world economy will bounce back like a rubber ball in the form of a V-shaped recession. For the way it is evolving and other reasons this will not happen.
There is much we don’t know about the virus. After Covid-19 has wreaked havoc it may return in further spikes. This is more likely in the event of a premature lifting of restrictions such as lockdown. When it finally exhausts itself, the world will be left with a recession at least as severe as 1929-33.
In Britain the Tory response to the public health crisis has been murderously incompetent. They ignored the World Health Organization’s advice to test, trace and isolate for far too long. They were unable to supply life-saving personal protective equipment (PPE) to key workers. They were late in imposing a lockdown. When they finally recognised the need to test, it was lamentably organised and woefully deficient, though they had had months to prepare. The background to their multiple failures was a decade of austerity that sapped and destroyed the social infrastructure, especially the NHS.
This was not just incompetence. They were ideologically driven to ‘get back to business’. That was their first priority - not human life. For us, it goes without saying, life is more important profit. But the capitalist class is anxious to get back to making profits, from the backs of the workers and at risk to their lives. The pressure is on for a premature end to lockdown from the bosses. Already in the early part of May we heard the cry from Tory MPs like Graham Brady that workers have been, “a little too willing to stay at home.” Back to the ‘lazy workers’ rhetoric! Same old Tories.
We are NOT all in this together. BAME people are much more susceptible to catch the virus. Black people are four times more likely to die than white people. There are several reasons why this may be so, but fundamentally health is linked to economic wellbeing. BAME people are more likely to be poor and poor people are more at risk of being struck down by the virus. They are more likely to live in overcrowded conditions and find it impossible to self-isolate. BAME medical staff and other key workers are disproportionately being carried off by Covid-19 in the course of their duties. Renters are still being threatened with eviction, despite the empty promises of the government. Where are they supposed to go? The homeless are particularly at risk from the pandemic, and they are a risk to everyone else until they are housed.
Most workers accepted the fact of lockdown, given the Tories’ complete failure to stop the pandemic in its tracks at an early stage. They are reluctant to risk their lives unnecessarily by going back to work without adequate safeguards. But some workers, particularly those in the most insecure jobs, are desperate and destitute. Some have already been bullied into going back to work and lost their lives as a result. We must recognise that those most anxious to return are those ripe for super-exploitation, measuring the risk to their livelihoods against that of their health. The ‘precariat’ are not usually well organised to oppose their employers. Where workers are strong the trade unions have a vital role to play in ensuring that workers only return when the workplace is safe. (See the LRC statement: The People’s Charter against Covid-19 https://labourrep.com/blog/2020/5/13/the-peoples-charter-against-covid-19.)
A phased return from lockdown means wholesale changes are required at work – physical separation and distancing, PPE for all workers at risk, staggering shifts, deep cleaning and many other measures. Big changes have already taken place in the way we interact with each other. We must see not only the welfare of workers but pupils in schools and customers in shops etc. and passengers on public transport as the first priority. That is not what the bosses want. They are desperate to oil the wheels of profit – at our risk. This incompetent government is a long way from getting the advantage over the virus. Till that time there can be no question of a general return to work. Individual cases must be scrutinised and subjected to a veto by the trade unions.
There is much talk of a ‘new normal’, and it is true that things cannot go on in the old away. There has been mass enthusiasm for volunteering and huge support for NHS and other hitherto poorly paid key workers. This feeling of social solidarity can be built on, and millions dream of building a better future after the crisis has passed. We have lived through a wretched decade of austerity and burgeoning inequality, where hedge fund managers, corporation lawyers and other spivs have been esteemed so much more highly than care workers, nurses and refuse collectors – at least if you compare their pay packets. Now we know who the real key workers are
Austerity, we have been told since 2010, was an economic necessity. ‘There was no money’. Suddenly on the onset of the virus, the money was there in enormous quantities. Money was there to save the capitalist system. The country had been ruled on a lie about austerity for ten years.
The present crisis has been used to chip away at the remaining protections for working people. For instance the minimal protection of the Working Time Directive was relaxed so lorry drivers could work longer hours. The boss class was well aware that the crisis was an opportunity for them – to bring the working class to heel. Here is the perspective of the ruling class from Richard Houston, chief executive of north and south Europe at Deloitte: “Almost all finance leaders believe that flexible working will gain ground in the wake of this crisis. We have an opportunity to rethink the future of work in a way that boosts opportunity and innovation.” For the working class flexibility means perpetual insecurity and opportunity and innovation a way for the bosses to screw us harder.
Vast changes have already taken place in the world of work, and more are in process. Air transport has been grounded and may take years to recover, if it ever does. The hospitality industry, pubs and restaurants etc., have been crushed. It is quite clear that thousands of the little cafes that could just about hold their heads above water in 2019 will have breathed their last. These examples could be multiplied at will – what will happen to the performing arts and professional sport? There have been winners and losers. Capitalism has always been a system of organised swindling, and the crisis gives yet more opportunities for the rich to get richer. The big companies have been the big winners so far.
We should remember the economic background to the onset of the present crisis. Since the 2008 financial collapse, capitalism has been in intensive care. The Bank of England has been holding interest rates at 0.1%, a record low. A recession was going to hit in 2020 in any case – the Coronavirus has affected its severity, not its occurrence. Since 2008 world capitalism has been dominated by a minority of giant corporations –Amazon and the like – which bestride the world economy like a colossus, and a vast throng of ‘zombie’ companies only kept alive by artificially low interest rates. Many of these will be swept away, and of course vast numbers of jobs will disappear with them.
World capitalism has just about survived one life-threatening crisis in 2008. The price of survival was debt. Total global debt stands at $353 trillion, more than 322% of what the earth’s population produces in a year. This is due to spiral as governments in rich countries splash the cash to save their system. We are about to face the same debate as was forced on us in 2010 – how can we pay for the crisis? The Tories will certainly argue that a new round of even worse austerity is needed. In other words the working class should pay. This will be a massive battleground in the years to come.
The economy in Britain and the rest of the advanced capitalist world is restructuring before our eyes. More workers in warehouses and servicing internet orders while high street shops go to the wall. Massive unemployment looms. Will all these unemployed workers get new jobs in the firms and industries that are taking labour on? No chance. When Britain began to deindustrialise under the Thatcher’s onslaught, who but an idiot or a Tory apologist thought that unemployed miners in Durham or South Wales would instantly and costlessly reappear as bond dealers in the City of London? The same is true today.
So there is a ‘new order’ out there waiting to be discovered, but what sort of new order will have to be fought for. Millions have been inspired in the teeth of the crisis to believe that we can build a better Britain. There is a crisis in social care. This was clear before care homes became a hot news item as they became the killing fields of Covid-19 because of Tory incompetence in handling the pandemic:
The bankruptcy of the social fabric including social care is plain for all to see under the microscope provided by the pandemic. The case for a socialist reconstruction of society is equally clear. But there are powerful forces in the ruling class that want to return us to a bitterer servitude. The outcome will be determined by class struggle.
The ruling class will once again use the argument they made in 2010 all the more forcefully. Government debt is bound to soar above 100% of national income as result of the bailouts. The deficit – the difference between what the government spends and what it receives in tax – is likely to exceed 14% of GDP. They say we’ll need to pay it back
These are not unprecedented figures, scary though they sound. After the Second World War the national debt was more than 250% of GDP. It was whittled down over time. Remember the vast bulk of the handouts go to the capitalist class and big firms. Tesco got a business rates holiday worth £585m. Where did it go? £635m went straight out to shareholders in the form of dividends. Many of the firms with hands outstretched for government money (our money) are hiding in tax havens. Many don’t pay even the miserable legal minimum wage. Why should they have our charity?
The pandemic is not the fault of the working class. That is obvious. The Tories have messed up spectacularly in handling the incidence of the virus. It is high time for working class people to begin to run their own destinies. The crisis is also an opportunity.
